I read this earlier, at The Atlantic in a story about the
possible demise of 5 set matches at grand slams.
A best-of-three
format (say, Player A vs. Player B) can produce only four distinct three-set
outcomes: ABA, ABB, BAA and BAB. A five-set match, on the other hand, has 12
possible set outcomes, creating a host of ways momentum can twist and turn over
the course of several hours.
I hadn’t thought about this before.
The final sentence seemed a little odd, until I realised
they were talking about the number of outcomes when then match goes to the full
five sets. They are deliberately
ignoring the matches that only last 3 or 4 sets.
Anyway - this is more interesting than the common
scenario when we want to know how many arrangements there are if you have two
things to choose from. With five sets in
a match (and using Player A and Player B as in the Atlantic article) you would
get 2^5 = 32 outcomes. Some of these, of
course, are not real, because if Player A wins all of the first three sets (a
straight sets victory) the game ends without the final two sets being played,
regardless of whether Player A would have gone on to wins them or whether
Player would have done.
Asking secondary pupils to work out how many different ways
there are to win a five-set match (when it doesn’t have to go the full
distance) seems like a nice idea. I can
think of three ways they might set (!) this out. Are there more?
One is to use a tree diagram and to cross out the ones that will never
crop up because one player has already won. The bottom row shows the 12 ways mentioned in
the original article.
There are therefore (from this diagram) 20 different possible ways for the
match to finish.
Another is to make a list of these outcomes and not to
count the ones that are the same as other matches that have already
finished. The numbers in the next
diagram show the counting, while the shading shows who has won:
The symmetry here is nice and shows that I could have got away with just
doing the top half and then doubling the number of ways. This is just a repeat of the tree diagram,
though, so the next way concentrates more on the combinations that work.
Here are the ways that the game can progress if player A wins the first
two sets:
If Player A wins the first set and B wins the second then this can happen:
…which gives 10 ways so far. Then
we can exchange A and B to give us the other 10 ways.